Questioning the merits of emancipation

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More recent ventures in Human Development Theory have provided rich empirical support for the claim that processes of human emancipation are intimately tied with civicness and democratic performance of any given society (compare Inglehart & Welzel 2005, full citation in the attached paper).

For our class “Secondary Data Analysis” my colleagues Lisa Heindl, Anja Jungermann, Henrik Mädler and I set out on an ambitious project: to disconfirm the universality of the above claim. We hypothesized that the explanatory power (R2 in technical terms) of emancipation on civicness and democratic performance would decrease over higher levels of the former. In other words, once a certain catch-up effect is realized, more emancipation has no, or possibly even a reverse effect on civicness and democratic performance.

Held, Heindl, Jungermann & Mädler (2006)

Visualization: Held, Heindl, Jungermann & Mädler (2006)

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Electoral engineering for Fiji

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Electoral Engineering refers to the careful design of the electoral system, its incentives and formulae for representation in an effort to bring about certain normatively inspired outcomes. For the University Study Course “Mathematics and Democracy”, held by mathematician Prof. Dr. Dierk Schleicher and political scientist Prof. Dr. Matthijs Bogaards, we were to devise an electoral system (change) for any country of our choice.

fiji

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Developed a (random) election projection method

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The first project of this semester’s transdisciplinary University Studies Course on “Mathematics and Democracy” was to develop and document an election projection method. My colleagues Anna Kristina Bautista, Matthias Bröcheler, Ivelina Grozeva, Nora Lücke, Adina Luican and me decided to implement a voter movement analysis. The method employs statistical models to estimate voter movements between parties in the selected (few) election precincts to arrive at a projection for the entire constituency. Matthias devised and implemented the procedure using Matlab.

election-projection

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